Risk Predictor for Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Preoperative/Postoperative Prediction for Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

A large study population (1501 patients) from a multi-institutional database including patients who underwent curative liver resection for newly-diagnosed HCC was enrolled for the model construction. Our study showed the optimal cut-off time to differentiate between early and late recurrence was a recurrence-free interval of 8 months. Patients who developed recurrence within 8 months of surgery is considered to the early recurrence. The independent preoperative and postoperative risk factors for early HCC recurrence after resection were identified. Based on these results, two risk prediction tools were constructed which can offer a useful guidance for individually surgical decision-making, and planning for reasonable recurrence surveillance and decision on adjuvant therapy. These results was also validated in a western cohort (876 patients) with a favorable performance.

Study inclusion criteria: newly-diagnosed HCC patients who underwent curative liver resection. Exclusion criteria: (1) preoperative anti-tumor treatment (2) palliative liver resection (3) Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance (ECOG) status score of 2 or more (4) 30-day postoperative mortality (5) incomplete medical record.

These predictive models also known as nomograms are based on preoperative and postoperative variables to calculate the individualized risk of early recurrence in patients received liver cancer surgery. The models shows better prediction ability for early recurrence compared with traditional tumor staging systems. We recommend patients with high-risk of early recurrence should receive more aggressive postoperative surveillance.

The results obtained are for reference only. Patients and caregivers using this tool should discuss the result with the patient’s physician.

Preoperative Risk Predictor for Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Please fill in the blanks and then click the submit. All fields are required. 1) Performance Status Score Asymptomatic(PS=0) Symptomatic but   completely ambulatory(PS=1) 2) Preoperative AFP Level ng/ml 3) Tumor Number* Single Multiple(≥ 2 nodules) 4) Maximum Tumor Diameter* mm 5) Macrovascular Invasion* Present Absent *Based on radiological results. Probability of Early Recurrence Risk %

Postoperative Risk Predictor for Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Please fill in the blanks and then click the submit. All fields are required. 1) Performance Status Score Asymptomatic(PS=0) Symptomatic but   completely ambulatory(PS=1) 2) Preoperative AFP Level ng/ml 3) Tumor Number* Single Multiple(≥ 2 nodules) 4) Maximum Tumor Diameter* mm 5) Macrovascular Invasion* Present Absent 6) Microvascular Invasion* Present Absent 7) Satellite Nodules* Present Absent 8) Tumor Encapsulation* Complete Absent/Incomplete *Based on pathological results. Probability of Early Recurrence Risk %